A rational conversation on where AI is actually going | Benedict Evans
Бенедикт Эванс — независимый аналитик и бывший партнёр Andreessen Horowitz, который годами отслеживал ключевые технологические тренды как их штатный «мыслитель». В разговоре с Lenny он утверждает, что ИИ — это явление такого же масштаба, как интернет или мобильные технологии, но не больше, и что сейчас мы находимся в «1997 году» ИИ: на раннем, волнующем и крайне неопределённом этапе. Обсуждаются вопросы о том, где в стеке ИИ реально будет накапливаться ценность, о волне анти-ИИ-настроений, о неожиданном буме консалтинга и профессиональных услуг в ИИ-компаниях. Эванс объясняет, почему дистрибуция становится главным конкурентным рвом по мере того, как разрабатывать ПО становится всё легче. Главный совет о будущем работы: правильный вопрос не «какой процент моей работы может сделать ИИ?», а «это задача или полноценная работа?». Общий вывод — скорее всего, всё будет нормально, но к переменам стоит готовиться.
A rational conversation on where AI is actually going | Benedict Evans
Benedict Evans is an independent analyst and former partner at Andreessen Horowitz, where he spent years as their in-house “thinker” tracking the most important technology trends. For the past six years, he’s been publishing deeply researched presentations on where tech is heading, most recently focused on AI’s transformation of the economy. His work is read by founders, investors, and operators trying to make sense of a noisy field. His most controversial opinion: AI is as big a deal as the internet or mobile—and only as big.
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In our in-depth conversation, we discuss:
Why we’re in “1997” for AI—early, exciting, and deeply uncertain about what comes next
Where value will actually accrue in the AI stack
The anti-AI backlash, and where it may lead
The surprising boom in consulting and professional services at AI companies
Why distribution is becoming the ultimate moat as software gets easier to build
Why the right question about your job isn’t “What percent can AI do?” but “Is this a task or a job?”
Why things will probably be okay—and what you need to do to prepare
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Where to find Benedict Evans:
• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/benedictevans
• Newsletter: https://www.ben-evans.com/newsletter
• Website: https://www.ben-evans.com
Referenced:
• Andreessen Horowitz: https://a16z.com
• AI Eats the World: https://youtu.be/niJpDnNtNp4
• VisiCalc: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VisiCalc
• McKinsey & Company: https://www.mckinsey.com
• Bain & Company: https://www.bain.com
• Accenture: https://www.accenture.com
• Jevons paradox: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox
• Benedict’s post on LinkedIn about Excel: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/benedictevans_younger-people-may-not-believe-this-but-activity-7303217994459938816-PNqu
• The AI-native startup: 5 products, 7-figure revenue, 100% AI-written code | Dan Shipper (co-founder/CEO of Every): https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/inside-every-dan-shipper
• Dario Amodei on X: https://x.com/DarioAmodei
• Marc Andreessen: The real AI boom hasn’t even started yet: https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/marc-andreessen-the-real-ai-boom
• Frame.io: https://frame.io
• Food Marketing Institute: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Food_Marketing_Institute
• Llama: https://www.llama.com
• Steven Sinofsky on X: https://x.com/stevesi
• Drake meme: https://imgflip.com/memegenerator/343699919/Drake-Hotline-Bling-Transparent-Background
• Ex-Google CEO Gets Booed While Discussing AI in Commencement Speech | WSJ News: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tNH43a1EI7s
• Jonathan Swift’s quote: https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/9838985-you-cannot-reason-a-person-out-of-a-position-he
• George Carlin’s quote: https://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/george_carlin_391403
• Fujitsu: https://global.fujitsu
• O*NET OnLine: https://www.onetonline.org
• Pete Holmes’s website: https://peteholmes.com
• The Seventh Seal: https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0050976
• Ericsson R310s phone: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ericsson_R310s
• i-mate phone: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I-mate
Recommended books:
• Three Men in a Boat: https://www.amazon.com/Three-Men-Boat-Jerome-K/dp/1512099899
• Nature’s Metropolis: Chicago and the Great West: https://www.amazon.com/Natures-Metropolis-Chicago-Great-West/dp/0393308731
Production and marketing by https://penname.co/. For inquiries about sponsoring the podcast, email [email protected].
Lenny may be an investor in the companies discussed.
My biggest takeaways from this conversation:
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