The AI Problem Matrix
Спрос на софт бесконечен: по словам Кайла Дейгла, COO GitHub, в 2025 году было сделано 1 миллиард коммитов, сейчас это 275 миллионов в неделю, а GitHub Actions выросли с 500 млн минут/неделю в 2023 году до 2,1 млрд минут на этой неделе. Но это верно не для всех профессий. Тунгуз предлагает матрицу 2x2 с двумя осями: потолок спроса (бесконечный или конечный) и можно ли замкнуть петлю (может ли ИИ проверять корректность без участия человека). Получаются четыре квадранта: «экономические двигатели» (замкнутая петля + бесконечный спрос, например разработка ПО), «игры на эффективности» (замкнутая петля + конечный спрос, например бухгалтерия), «творческие усилители» (открытая петля + бесконечный спрос, например создание контента) и «утилитарные инструменты» (открытая петля + конечный спрос, например подготовка отчётности). Сам венчурный капитал он относит к конечному спросу и открытой петле.
The demand for software is infinite. Kyle Daigle, GitHub’s COO, made the case concrete :
There were 1 billion commits in 2025. Now, it’s 275 million per week, on pace for 14 billion this year if growth remains linear (spoiler : it won’t.) GitHub Actions has grown from 500M minutes/week in 2023 to 1B minutes/week in 2025, and now 2.1B minutes so far this week.
But that’s not true for all roles. I use a 2x2 matrix that separates work along two axes : the ceiling of demand & whether the loop can be closed.
On one axis, demand. Infinite Demand means more output creates more value. There is no saturation point.
On the other axis, open vs closed loops. Closed Loop means AI can verify correctness without human intervention.
Closed Loop + Infinite Demand = Economic Engines. Software engineering lives here. AI writes the code. Tests verify correctness. More code enables more features. Companies will always need more software.
Closed Loop + Finite Demand = Efficiency Plays. AI bookkeeping categorizes transactions, reconciles accounts, files returns. Deterministic rules applied to numbers. But a company only has so many transactions. A company files taxes once a year. It closes the books each quarter.
Open Loop + Infinite Demand = Creative Amplifiers. Content creation & marketing strategy. AI can generate a thousand ad variations or blog posts. A person must judge the right ones to publish. Does this ad campaign align with our values? Is this strategic positioning correct? Some problems are open loop today but will close over time.
Open Loop + Finite Demand = Utility Tools. Preparing 10-Ks & 10-Qs. Legal contract review. Insurance claims processing. One report per quarter, one contract per deal. AI makes the work faster, but doesn’t create new work to do.
Every role fits somewhere on this 2x2. I would put venture capitalist in finite demand & open loop. There’s only a certain amount of venture capital dollars entering the ecosystem in a year, & investment selection remains an open problem.
Where does yours fit?